According to Yonhap News,
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday revised up its 2024 growth outlook for South Korea to 2.3 percent on the back of greater-than-expected resilience in major global economies.
The latest projection for the year marked a 0.1 percentage point increase in its forecast made in October, and is on a par with the projection by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The South Korean government forecast economic growth of 2.2 percent in 2024 and the Bank of Korea presented a 2.1 percent growth outlook for this year.
Analysts have said the South Korean economy is expected to expand on rising exports in line with the economic growth of the United States, China and other nations, albeit at a slow pace.
After a yearlong downturn, exports, a key growth engine for South Korea, have bottomed out and risen since late last year driven by solid demand for semiconductors, among other items.
For the global economy, the IMF raised the growth forecast for 2024 by 0.2 percentage point to 3.1 percent on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the U.S. and other economies, as well as fiscal support in China.
"With disinflation and steady growth, the likelihood of a hard landing has receded, and risks to global growth are broadly balanced," the organization said in the latest report.
The organization said faster disinflation could lead to further easing of financial conditions and stronger structural reform momentum would bolster productivity with positive cross-border spillovers.
Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions and global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8 percent in 2024 and further to 4.4 percent in 2025. Last year's figure was 6.8 percent.
But the IMF pointed out that the forecast for 2024–25 comes below the historical average of 3.8 percent amid high interest rates and low productivity growth.
It cited hikes in commodity prices stemming from geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing tension in the Red Sea, and deepening woes over property sectors in China and elsewhere as downside risks.
The organization also noted that supply chain disruptions or stickier underlying inflation could prolong tight monetary conditions.
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Source: Yonhap News (January 30, 2024)